Warming and hypoxia reduce the performance and survival of northern bay scallops (Argopecten irradians irradians) amid a fishery collapse

Warming temperatures and diminishing dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are among the most pervasive drivers of global coastal change. While regions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean are experiencing greater than average warming, the combined effects of thermal and hypoxic stress on marine life in this region are poorly understood. Populations of the northern bay scallop, Argopecten irradians irradians across the northeast United States have experienced severe declines in recent decades. This study used a combination of high-resolution (~1 km) satellite-based temperature records, long-term temperature and DO records, field and laboratory experiments, and high-frequency measures of scallop cardiac activity in an ecosystem setting to quantify decadal summer warming and assess the vulnerability of northern bay scallops to thermal and hypoxic stress across their geographic distribution. From 2003 to 2020, significant summer warming (up to ~0.2°C year^-1 ) occurred across most of the bay scallop range. At a New York field site in 2020, all individuals perished during an 8-day estuarine heatwave that coincided with severe diel-cycling hypoxia. Yet at a Massachusetts site with comparable DO levels but lower daily mean temperatures, mortality was not observed. A 96-h laboratory experiment recreating observed daily temperatures of 25 or 29°C, and normoxia or hypoxia (22.2% air saturation), revealed a 120-fold increased likelihood of mortality in the 29°C-hypoxic treatment compared with control conditions, with scallop clearance rates also reduced by 97%. Cardiac activity measurements during a field deployment indicated that low DO and elevated daily temperatures modulate oxygen consumption rates and likely impact aerobic scope. Collectively, these findings suggest that concomitant thermal and hypoxic stress can have detrimental effects on scallop physiology and survival and potentially disrupt entire fisheries. Recovery of hypoxic systems may benefit vulnerable fisheries under continued warming.