Estimation of population-specific values of theta for PowerPlex Y23 profiles

John S Buckleton; Taryn O Hall; Jo-Anne Bright; Michael C Yung; Jérôme Goudet; Maarten Kruijver; Bruce S Weir

doi:10.1016/j.fsigen.2024.103175

Estimation of population-specific values of theta for PowerPlex Y23 profiles

Forensic Sci Int Genet. 2024 Nov 16:75:103175. doi: 10.1016/j.fsigen.2024.103175. Online ahead of print.

Authors

John S Buckleton¹, Taryn O Hall², Jo-Anne Bright³, Michael C Yung⁴, Jérôme Goudet⁵, Maarten Kruijver¹, Bruce S Weir⁴

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited, Private Bag 92021, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
² UnitedHealth Group, Optum Genomics, Minnetonka, MN 55343, USA.
³ Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited, Private Bag 92021, Auckland 1142, New Zealand. Electronic address: jo.bright@esr.cri.nz.
⁴ Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1617, USA.
⁵ Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.

PMID: 39579651
DOI: 10.1016/j.fsigen.2024.103175

Abstract

We examine 31,011 PPY23 profiles at the population, metapopulation and world levels. Most haplotypes appear only once but a few have higher counts, including a set of 23 matching profiles in Delhi, India and a set of 16 matching profiles in Burkina Faso with one additional matching American African profile. We estimate F_STvalues to be used as "theta" (θ) in match probability calculations, following the method we used in our earlier survey of autosomal STR data. Match probability estimates using Fˆ_ST or the κ method of Brenner for a previously unseen profile are similar but differ for any profile previously seen.

Keywords: Forensic DNA analysis; Match probability; Theta values; Y chromosome STR profiles.