Optimizing multi-environment trials in the Southern US Rice belt via smart-climate-soil prediction-based models and economic importance

Abstract

Rice breeding programs globally have worked to release increasingly productive and climate-smart cultivars, but the genetic gains have been limited for some reasons. One is the capacity for field phenotyping, which presents elevated costs and an unclear approach to defining the number and allocation of multi-environmental trials (MET). To address this challenge, we used soil information and ten years of historical weather data from the USA rice belt, which was translated into rice response based on the rice cardinal temperatures and crop stages. Next, we eliminated those highly correlated Environmental Covariates (ECs) (>0.95) and applied a supervised algorithm for feature selection using two years of data (2021-22) and 25 genotypes evaluated for grain yield in 18 representative locations in the Southern USA. To test the trials' optimization, we performed the joint analysis using prediction-based models in four different scenarios: i) considering trials as non-related, ii) including the environmental relationship matrix calculated from ECs, iii) within clusters; iv) sampling one location per cluster. Finally, we weigh the trial's allocation considering the counties' economic importance and the environmental group to which they belong. Our findings show that eight ECs explained 58% of grain yield variation across sites and 53% of the observed genotype-by-environment interaction. Moreover, it is possible to reduce 28% the number of locations without significant loss in accuracy. Furthermore, the US Rice belt comprises four clusters, with economic importance varying from 13 to 45%. These results will help us better allocate trials in advance and reduce costs without penalizing accuracy.

Keywords: envirotyping; genotype x environment; market segments; supervised learning; target population of environments.