Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

Duo Ping Zhu; Liu Yang; Yong-Hua Li; Pei Huang; Bin Yao; Zhe Kong; Yangzhou Xiang

doi:10.1002/ece3.70503

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

Ecol Evol. 2024 Nov 3;14(11):e70503. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70503. eCollection 2024 Nov.

Authors

Duo Ping Zhu^{1

2

3}, Liu Yang^{1

2

3}, Yong-Hua Li^{1

2

3}, Pei Huang^{1

2

3}, Bin Yao^{1

2

4}, Zhe Kong⁵, Yangzhou Xiang⁶

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing China.
² State Forestry Administration Dunhuang- Kumutage Desert Ecosystem Location Research Station Dunhuang China.
³ Institute of Desertification Studies Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding Institute of Ecolog Conservation and Restoration Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing China.
⁵ Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center of Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China Beijing China.
⁶ School of Geography and Resources, Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic State Monitoring of Watershed Guizhou Education University Guiyang China.

Abstract

Climate change can significantly impact the ecological suitability and diversity of species. Pyrethrum tatsienense, a critically endangered species in China, requires a thorough understanding of its habitat distribution and the environmental factors that affect it in the context of climate change. The Maxent algorithm was used to examine the key factors influencing the distribution of P. tatsienense in China, using data from 127 species occurrences and environmental variables from the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH), current, and future scenarios. The Maxent model was optimized utilizing the R package ENMeval, providing the most accurate predictions for suitable habitats across various scenarios. Results show that suitable regions for P. tatsienense encompass approximately 15.02% (14.42 × 10⁵ km²) of China, predominantly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The mean UV-B of the highest month (UVB3: 39.7%), elevation (elev: 28.7%), and the warmest season of precipitation (Bio18: 17.4%) are the major limiting factors for suitable habitat. The optimal species distribution ranges are identified as > 7500 J m^-2 day^-1 for UVB3, 2700-5600 m for elev, and 150-480 mm for Bio18. Predictions for the historical climate indicate the presence of refugia at the junction of Sichuan, Tibet, and Qinghai. The MH predictions show an increase in climatic suitability for P. tatsienense compared to the LIG and LGM, with an expansion of suitable areas westward. Future climate change scenarios indicate that the potential suitable habitat for P. tatsienense is expected to increase with increasing radiative forcing, with higher latitude regions becoming new marginally suitable habitats. However, predicted environmental changes in western Tibet may drive the loss of highly suitable habitats in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of how environmental factors impact the habitat suitability of P. tatsienense and provide valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for this important species.

Keywords: ENMeval; Pyrethrum tatsienense; climate change; different climate conditions; maximum entropy model; suitable habitat distribution.