Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China

Abstract

Background: Prior to the development of COVID-19 vaccines, policymakers instituted various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to limit transmission. Prior studies have attempted to examine the extent to which these NPIs achieved their goals of containment, suppression, or mitigation of disease transmission. Existing evidence syntheses have found that numerous factors limit comparability across studies, and the evidence on NPI effectiveness during COVID-19 pandemic remains sparse and inconsistent. This study documents the magnitude and variation in NPI effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 transmission (i.e., reduction in effective reproduction rate [R_eff] and daily contact rate) in Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.

Methods: Our rapid review and narrative synthesis of existing research identified 126 studies meeting our screening criteria. We selected four contexts with >5 articles to facilitate a meaningful synthesis. This step yielded an analytic sample of 61 articles that used data from China, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Results: We found wide variation and substantial uncertainty around the effectiveness of NPIs at reducing disease transmission. Studies of a single intervention or NPIs that are the least stringent had estimated Reff reductions in the 10-50% range; those that examined so-called "lockdowns" were associated with greater Reff reductions that ranged from 40 to 90%, with many in the 70-80% range. While many studies reported on multiple NPIs, only six of the 61 studies explicitly used the framing of "stringency" or "mild versus strict" or "tiers" of NPIs, concepts that are highly relevant for decisionmakers.

Conclusion: Existing evidence suggests that NPIs reduce COVID-19 transmission by 40 to 90 percent. This paper documents the extent of the variation in NPI effectiveness estimates and highlights challenges presented by a lack of standardization in modeling approaches. Further research on NPI effectiveness at different stringency levels is needed to inform policy responses to future pandemics.

Keywords: COVID-19; contact rate; disease transmission; effective reproduction number; infectious disease modeling; non-pharmaceutical interventions.