Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles

Jinglan Cui; Ouping Deng; Miao Zheng; Xiuming Zhang; Zihao Bian; Naiqing Pan; Hanqin Tian; Jianming Xu; Baojing Gu

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-53518-5

Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles

Nat Commun. 2024 Oct 24;15(1):9185. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53518-5.

Authors

Jinglan Cui^{1

2}, Ouping Deng^{1

3}, Miao Zheng¹, Xiuming Zhang^{1

4}, Zihao Bian^{5

6}, Naiqing Pan⁵, Hanqin Tian⁵, Jianming Xu^{1

7}, Baojing Gu^{8

9}

Affiliations

¹ College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
² Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
³ College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China.
⁴ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
⁵ Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA.
⁶ School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.
⁷ Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
⁸ College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. bjgu@zju.edu.cn.
⁹ Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. bjgu@zju.edu.cn.

Abstract

Forests are invaluable natural resources that provide essential services to humanity. However, the effects of global warming on forest carbon and nitrogen cycling remain uncertain. Here we project a decrease in total nitrogen input and accumulation by 7 ± 2 and 28 ± 9 million tonnes (Tg), respectively, and an increase in reactive nitrogen losses to the environment by 9 ± 3 Tg for 2100 due to warming in a fossil-fueled society. This would compromise the global carbon sink capacity by 0.45 ± 0.14 billion tonnes annually. Furthermore, warming-induced inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles could widen the economic gap between the Global South and Global North. High-income countries are estimated to gain US$179 billion in benefits from forest assets under warming, while other regions could face net damages of US$31 billion. Implementing climate-smart forest management, such as comprehensive restoration and optimizing tree species composition, is imperative in the face of future climate change.

Abstract

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