Enhancing work zone crash severity analysis: The role of synthetic minority oversampling technique in balancing minority categories

Abstract

Road work zones are becoming increasingly common due to the aging infrastructure and the need for capacity enhancement. They present significant safety risks due to narrow lanes, uneven traffic flow, lower speed, and reduced visibility. It is particularly important to understand the role of human behavioral factors in WZ crash injury severity due to difficulty navigating such areas. Furthermore, the crash injury data available is mostly imbalanced, primarily due to the lower incidence of high-cost fatal and severe injuries, and can benefit from the use of emerging analysis techniques. This research study examines a unique dataset comprising 7,855 WZ crashes in Tennessee from 2018 to 2022 as a case study to provide useful insight into the behavioral factors associated with injury severity and how they change after adjusting for the underrepresented fatal and serious injuries within the dataset. The study applies frequentist methods and a machine learning technique enhanced with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), addressing the data imbalance (relatively fewer fatal and serious injuries) for useful inferences and predictions. The study results indicate that aggressive driving, overspeeding, and drunk driving significantly elevate injury severity. Additionally, after balancing the minority categories of crash injury severity levels, the importance of contributing factors changes. The study offers engineers and data analysts a framework for analyzing imbalanced data, a prevalent issue in crash injury severity analysis. By exploring key behavioral factors responsible for injury severity in WZ crashes, the study provides useful insight and valuable information to traffic safety engineers, transportation agencies, and policymakers to implement enhanced safety measures in WZ design and management, ultimately aiming to mitigate injury severity and to improve overall safety for road users.

Keywords: Aggressive driving; Drunk driving; Injury severity; Lighting conditions; Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model; Posted speed limit; Random Forest (RF) model; Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE); Weather conditions; Work zones (WZ) crashes.