Prediction of Severe Baseline Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Subsequent Risk of Stroke and Cardiovascular Disease

Michiel H F Poorthuis; Steven H J Hageman; Aernoud T L Fiolet; L Jaap Kappelle; Michiel L Bots; Ph Gabriel Steg; Frank L J Visseren; Deepak L Bhatt; Gert J de Borst

doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.046894

Prediction of Severe Baseline Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Subsequent Risk of Stroke and Cardiovascular Disease

Stroke. 2024 Nov;55(11):2632-2640. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.046894. Epub 2024 Sep 25.

Authors

Michiel H F Poorthuis¹, Steven H J Hageman², Aernoud T L Fiolet³, L Jaap Kappelle¹, Michiel L Bots⁴, Ph Gabriel Steg^{5

6}, Frank L J Visseren², Deepak L Bhatt⁷, Gert J de Borst⁸

Affiliations

¹ Department of Neurology (M.H.F.P., L.J.K.), University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands.
² Department of Vascular Medicine (S.H.J.H., F.L.J.V.), University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands.
³ Department of Cardiology (A.T.L.F.), University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands.
⁴ Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care (M.L.B.), University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands.
⁵ Université Paris-Cité, INSERM-UMR1148, F-75018, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Bichat, French Alliance for Cardiovascular Trials, France (P.G.S.).
⁶ Institut Universitaire de France, Paris (P.G.S.).
⁷ Mount Sinai Fuster Heart Hospital, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY (D.L.B.).
⁸ Department of Vascular Surgery (G.J.B.), University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands.

Abstract

Background: Risk models to identify patients at high risk of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) can help in selecting patients for screening, but long-term outcomes in these patients are unknown. We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic value of the previously published Prevalence of ACAS (PACAS) risk model to detect ACAS at baseline and to predict subsequent risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) during follow-up.

Methods: We validated the discrimination and calibration of the PACAS risk model to detect severe (≥70% narrowing) ACAS with patients from the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health registry. We subsequently calculated the incidence rates of stroke and CVD (fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction or vascular death) during follow-up in 4 risk groups (low, medium, high, and very high, corresponding to sum scores of ≤9, 10-13, 14-17, and ≥18, respectively).

Results: Among 26 384 patients, aged between 45 and 80 years, without prior carotid procedures, 1662 (6.3%) had severe baseline ACAS. During ≈70 000 patient-years of follow-up, 1124 strokes and 2484 CVD events occurred. Discrimination of the PACAS model was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.68), and calibration showed adequate concordance between predicted and observed risks of severe baseline ACAS after recalibration. Significantly higher incidence rates of stroke (P_trend<0.011) and CVD (P_trend<0.0001) during follow-up were found with increasing PACAS risk groups. Among patients with high PACAS sum score of ≥14 (corresponding to 27.7% of all patients), severe baseline ACAS prevalence was 11.4%. In addition, 56.6% of incident strokes and 64.9% of incident CVD events occurred in this group.

Conclusions: The PACAS risk model can reliably identify patients at high risk of severe baseline ACAS. Incidence rates of stroke and CVD during follow-up were significantly higher in patients with high PACAS sum scores. Selective screening of patients with high PACAS sum scores may help to prevent future stroke or CVD.

Keywords: asymptomatic diseases; cardiovascular diseases; carotid stenosis; epidemiologic methods; mass screening; risk assessment; stroke.

MeSH terms

Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Cardiovascular Diseases* / epidemiology
Carotid Stenosis* / complications
Carotid Stenosis* / epidemiology
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
Registries
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Stroke* / epidemiology