Analysis of influencing factors of traffic accidents on urban ring road based on the SVM model optimized by Bayesian method

Abstract

Based on small scale sample of accident data from specific scenarios, fully exploring the potential influencing factors of the severity of traffic accidents has become a key and effective research method. In order to analyze the factors mentioned above in the scenario of urban ring roads, this paper collected data records of 1250 traffic accidents involving different severity on urban ring road of a central city in northwest China in the past 3 years. Firstly, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model of non-parametric method is utilized to analyze the data above, and three kernel functions of linear, inhomogeneous polynomial and Gaussian radial basis are constructed respectively. Considering comprehensively 16 potential influencing factors covering the driver-vehicle-road-environment integrated system, the SVM models of above three kernel functions are verified, accuracy reaches 0.771 and F1 reaches 0.841. Then, Bayesian Optimization (BO), Grids Search (GS) and Rough Set (RS) are utilized as optimizer to adjust the parameters of Gaussian radial basis function SVM model, the performance of BO-SVM is further improved and reaches the optimum, with an average accuracy of 0.875 on the test set and a F1 of 0.886, completely outperforming the benchmark models of GS-SVM, RS-SVM, Bilayer-LSTM and BP. Finally, the sensitivity analysis method is utilized to quantify the sensitivity of the potential influencing factors to the severity of road accidents, and the backward selection method is utilized to screen the core influencing factors that influence the severity of accident, concluded that core influencing factors are age, driving mileage and vehicle type. This paper will provide reference for the analysis of the significant influencing factors for road accidents severity, and to provide theoretical support for the precise formulation of accident improvement strategies.