The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales

NIHR Open Res. 2023 Nov 3:3:58. doi: 10.3310/nihropenres.13443.1. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Background: Understanding how non-household activities contributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections under different levels of national health restrictions is vital.

Methods: Among adult Virus Watch participants in England and Wales, we used multivariable logistic regressions and adjusted-weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) assessing the contribution of work, public transport, shopping, and hospitality and leisure activities to infections.

Results: Under restrictions, among 17,256 participants (502 infections), work [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01 (1.65-2.44), (aPAF) 30% (22-38%)] and transport [(aOR 1.15 (0.94-1.40), aPAF 5% (-3-12%)], were risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 but shopping, hospitality and leisure were not. Following the lifting of restrictions, among 11,413 participants (493 infections), work [(aOR 1.35 (1.11-1.64), aPAF 17% (6-26%)] and transport [(aOR 1.27 (1.04-1.57), aPAF 12% (2-22%)] contributed most, with indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.21 (0.98-1.48), aPAF 7% (-1-15%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.24 (1.02-1.51), aPAF 10% (1-18%)] increasing. During the Omicron variant, with individuals more socially engaged, among 11,964 participants (2335 infections), work [(aOR 1.28 (1.16-1.41), aPAF (11% (7-15%)] and transport [(aOR 1.16 (1.04-1.28), aPAF 6% (2-9%)] remained important but indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.43 (1.26-1.62), aPAF 20% (13-26%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.35 (1.22-1.48), aPAF 10% (7-14%)] dominated.

Conclusions: Work and public transport were important to transmissions throughout the pandemic with hospitality and leisure's contribution increasing as restrictions were lifted, highlighting the importance of restricting leisure and hospitality alongside advising working from home, when facing a highly infectious and virulent respiratory infection.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; hospitality; leisure; social-activities; transport; work.

Plain language summary

Establishing which activities and venues that were restricted in England and Wales during lockdowns were the most likely to lead to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections will help us understand how useful the restrictions were and will help us to develop proportional responses to future public health threats. We found that during periods of intense restrictions (October 2020–May 2021) many people became infected with SARS-CoV-2 if they left home to go to work or used public transport. During the period after most public health restrictions were lifted (September–mid-December 2021), while many people continued to become infected at work or if they used public transport, indoor hospitality and indoor leisure venues became increasingly important as places where people became infected. During the Omicron wave of the pandemic (December 2021–April 2022), by which point there were very few restrictions on people’s activities and many people were visiting hospitality and leisure venues with increasing frequency, people continued to become infected at work and on public transport, but hospitality and leisure venues were nearly as important places where people became infected. As essential activities led to most cases during periods of tight restrictions and leisure and hospitality activities became increasingly important under periods when rules were more relaxed, it is important to recognise how vital it was to encourage people to work from home, reduce public transport use and restrict visits to leisure and hospitality settings when the country was faced with a fast-spreading virus which killed many people. Outdoor use of leisure and hospitality venues appeared to be safer than indoor use.

Grants and funding

This work was commissioned by NIHR and funded by NIHR CRN as part of the NIHR infrastructure. This work was also supported by funding from the PROTECT COVID-19 National Core Study on transmission and environment, managed by the Health and Safety Executive on behalf of HM Government. The Virus Watch study is supported by the MRC Grant Ref: MC_PC 19070 awarded to UCL on 30 March 2020 and MRC Grant Ref: MR/V028375/1 awarded on 17 August 2020. The study also received $15,000 of Facebook advertising credit to support a pilot social media recruitment campaign on 18th August 2020. This study was also supported by the Wellcome Trust through a Wellcome Clinical Research Career Development Fellowship to RA [206602]. SB and TB are supported by an MRC doctoral studentship (MR/N013867/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation, in the writing of this report, or in the decision to submit the paper for publication.