How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Dim Coumou; Paola A Arias; Ana Bastos; Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales; Gabriele C Hegerl; Pandora Hope; Christopher Jack; Friederike Otto; Fahad Saeed; Olivia Serdeczny; Theodore G Shepherd; Robert Vautard

doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

PNAS Nexus. 2024 Aug 27;3(8):pgae277. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277. eCollection 2024 Aug.

Authors

Dim Coumou^{1

2

3}, Paola A Arias⁴, Ana Bastos^{5

6}, Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales^{7

8}, Gabriele C Hegerl⁹, Pandora Hope¹⁰, Christopher Jack¹¹, Friederike Otto¹², Fahad Saeed^{11

13}, Olivia Serdeczny^{11

14}, Theodore G Shepherd¹⁵, Robert Vautard³

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
² Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Department of Weather and Climate Models, Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, Netherlands.
³ Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), French National Centre for Scientific Research, Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université, place Jussieu, 75252 Paris, France.
⁴ Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental, Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67, No 53-108, Medellín, Colombia.
⁵ Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Integration, 07745 Jena, Germany.
⁶ Leipzig University, Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, 04017 Leipzig, Germany.
⁷ Ateneo Institute of Sustainability, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City 1108, Philippines.
⁸ Department of Environmental Science, School of Science and Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City 1108, Philippines.
⁹ School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh University, Drummond St, EH8 9XP, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
¹⁰ Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, 700 Collins St, Melbourne 3008, Australia.
¹¹ Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.
¹² Grantham Institute, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, WC2A 3PH, London, United Kingdom.
¹³ Weather and Climate Services, 108,Lane 1, Lake View Lanes (LVL), Korang Road, Bani Gala, Islamabad, Pakistan.
¹⁴ Geography Department, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Rudower Ch 16, 12489 Berlin, Germany.
¹⁵ Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Whiteknights Road, Earley Gate, RG6 6ET, Reading, United Kingdom.

Abstract

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, the prompt operation of the Loss and Damage fund is of paramount importance. As decisions on resource disbursement at the international level, and investment strategies at the national level, loom, the climate science community's role in providing fair and effective evidence is crucial. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers, but both ethical implications and deep uncertainty cannot be ignored. Considering these aspects, we articulate a vision that integrates established attribution methods and multiple lines of evidence within a coherent logical framework.

Keywords: attribution; climate impact; extreme weather; loss and damage.