Global temporal trends and projections of acute hepatitis E incidence among women of childbearing age: Age-period-cohort analysis 2021

Abstract

Background & aims: Acute hepatitis E (AHE) poses a significant threat to global public health, particularly among women of childbearing age (WCBA), who are at heightened risk for severe pregnancy-related complications. This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project future incidence of AHE in WCBA, providing insights crucial for targeted prevention and control strategies.

Methods: Data on AHE incidence from the Global Health data 2021. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts, and the Bayesian APC model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trajectories.

Results: Globally, AHE incidence numbers among WCBA rose from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined from 194.66 to 179.54 per 100,000 with a global net drift of -0.28%. However, high SDI regions showed a contrasting trend with a positive net drift of 0.02%. The age effect was consistent across SDI regions and globally, showing a decrease with advancing age, while unfavorable period and cohort effects were exhibited in high-SDI region. At the national level, locations exhibited varying trends of change. The BAPC model predicted a total of 3,759,384 AHE global cases in WCBA by 2030, with an expected mild increase in the ASIR. The outlook for the management and containment of AHE is grim in certain countries, including India.

Conclusions: The study revealed a complex epidemiological landscape of AHE in WCBA, with increasing global incidence numbers juxtaposed against a declining ASIR. The AHE burden by 2030 remain severe among WCBA. Young WCBA and high SDI region merit particular attention. The findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies to curb the projected rise in AHE incidence and align with the 2030 WHO goals.

Keywords: Acute hepatitis E; Age-period-cohort analysis; Bayesian Projections; Bayesian age-period-cohort; Disease burden; GBD; Women of childbearing age.