Can juvenile supply predict future abundance of large-bodied reef fishes?

Shaun K Wilson; Martial Depczynski; Christopher J Fulton; Thomas H Holmes; Jordan S Goetze; Matthew J Birt; Ben Radford; Paul Tinkler; Richard D Evans; Molly Moustaka; Cal Faubel; Mae Noble

doi:10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106607

Can juvenile supply predict future abundance of large-bodied reef fishes?

Mar Environ Res. 2024 Jul:199:106607. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106607. Epub 2024 Jun 13.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; Oceans Institute, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; Marine Science Program, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia. Electronic address: sk.wilson@aims.gov.au.
² Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; Oceans Institute, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.
³ Oceans Institute, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; Marine Science Program, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia.
⁴ Marine Science Program, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia; School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
⁵ Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.
⁶ Deakin Marine, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University Warrnambool Campus, Warrnambool, Victoria, Australia.
⁷ Oceans Institute, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; Marine Science Program, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.
⁸ Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water, Australian Government, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

PMID: 38879902
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106607

Abstract

The extent to which juvenile abundance can predict future populations of lethrinids at Ningaloo Reef was assessed using size frequency data collected over 13 consecutive years. Annual abundance of juvenile lethrinids (<5 cm TL) was highest in northern Ningaloo during La Niña years, when seawater is warmer and oceanic currents stronger. Juvenile lethrinid abundance explained 35% of the variance in 1-2 year-old Lethrinus nebulosus abundance the following year, a steeper relationship in the north suggesting greater survival of juveniles. Juvenile lethrinid abundance was also positively correlated to abundance of 1-2 year-old L. atkinsoni in the southern region of Ningaloo. Abundance of juvenile lethrinids were however poor predictors of L. nebulosus and L. atkinsoni older than 2 years of age. Post settlement processes likely weaken the link between juvenile supply and abundance of lethrinids >2 years old making it difficult to accurately quantify the overall size of future lethrinid populations.

Keywords: Coral reefs; El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Fish recruitment; Macroalgae habitat; Population dynamics.

MeSH terms

Animals
Coral Reefs*
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Environmental Monitoring
Fishes / growth & development
Fishes / physiology
Population Density
Population Dynamics