Predicted changes in distribution and grazing value of Stipa-based plant communities across the Eurasian steppe

Abstract

The Eurasian steppe is one of the world's largest continuous areas of grassland and has an important role in supporting livestock grazing, the most ubiquitous land use on Earth. However, the Eurasian steppe is under threat, from irrational grazing utilization, climate change, and resource exploitation. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the current and future distribution of Stipa-dominated plant communities in three important steppe subregions; the Tibetan Alpine, Central Asian, and Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregions. We combined this with an assessment of the grazing value of 22 Stipa species, the dominant grassland species in the area, to predict how grazing value might change under future climate change predictions. We found that the effects of changing climates on grazing values differed across the three subregions. Grazing values increased in the Tibetan alpine steppe and to a lesser extent in Central Asia, but there were few changes in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion. The response of different species to changing climates varied with environmental variables. Finally, our trait-based assessment of Stipa species revealed variations in grazing value, and this had major effects on the overall grazing value of the region. Our results reinforce the importance of trait-based characteristics of steppe plant species, how these traits affect grazing value, and how grazing values will change across different areas of the Eurasian steppe. Our work provides valuable insights into how different species will respond to changing climates and grazing, with important implications for sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

Keywords: Ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM); Eurasian steppe; Functional traits; Grazing value; Stipa L..