Modification of the PM2.5- and extreme heat-mortality relationships by historical redlining: a case-crossover study in thirteen U.S. states

Abstract

Background: Redlining has been associated with worse health outcomes and various environmental disparities, separately, but little is known of the interaction between these two factors, if any. We aimed to estimate whether living in a historically-redlined area modifies the effects of exposures to ambient PM_2.5 and extreme heat on mortality by non-external causes.

Methods: We merged 8,884,733 adult mortality records from thirteen state departments of public health with scanned and georeferenced Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) maps from the University of Richmond, daily average PM_2.5 from a sophisticated prediction model on a 1-km grid, and daily temperature and vapor pressure from the Daymet V4 1-km grid. A case-crossover approach was used to assess modification of the effects of ambient PM_2.5 and extreme heat exposures by redlining and control for all fixed and slow-varying factors by design. Multiple moving averages of PM_2.5 and duration-aware analyses of extreme heat were used to assess the most vulnerable time windows.

Results: We found significant statistical interactions between living in a redlined area and exposures to both ambient PM_2.5 and extreme heat. Individuals who lived in redlined areas had an interaction odds ratio for mortality of 1.0093 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0084, 1.0101) for each 10 µg m^-3 increase in same-day ambient PM_2.5 compared to individuals who did not live in redlined areas. For extreme heat, the interaction odds ratio was 1.0218 (95% CI 1.0031, 1.0408).

Conclusions: Living in areas that were historically-redlined in the 1930's increases the effects of exposures to both PM_2.5 and extreme heat on mortality by non-external causes, suggesting that interventions to reduce environmental health disparities can be more effective by also considering the social context of an area and how to reduce disparities there. Further study is required to ascertain the specific pathways through which this effect modification operates and to develop interventions that can contribute to health equity for individuals living in these areas.

Keywords: Air pollution; Effect modification; Environmental justice; Extreme heat; Redlining; Temperature.