Major tree species of Central European forests differ in their proportion of positive, negative, and nonstationary growth trends

Abstract

Temperate forests are undergoing significant transformations due to the influence of climate change, including varying responses of different tree species to increasing temperature and drought severity. To comprehensively understand the full range of growth responses, representative datasets spanning extensive site and climatic gradients are essential. This study utilizes tree-ring data from 550 sites from the temperate forests of Czechia to assess growth trends of six dominant Central European tree species (European beech, Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, sessile and pedunculate oak) over 1990-2014. By modeling mean growth series for each species and site, and employing principal component analysis, we identified the predominant growth trends. Over the study period, linear growth trends were evident across most sites (56% increasing, 32% decreasing, and 10% neutral). The proportion of sites with stationary positive trends increased from low toward high elevations, whereas the opposite was true for the stationary negative trends. Notably, within the middle range of their distribution (between 500 and 700 m a.s.l.), Norway spruce and European beech exhibited a mix of positive and negative growth trends. While Scots pine growth trends showed no clear elevation-based pattern, silver fir and oaks displayed consistent positive growth trends regardless of site elevation, indicating resilience to the ongoing warming. We demonstrate divergent growth trajectories across space and among species. These findings are particularly important as recent warming has triggered a gradual shift in the elevation range of optimal growth conditions for most tree species and has also led to a decoupling of growth trends between lowlands and mountain areas. As a result, further future shifts in the elevation range and changes in species diversity of European temperate forests can be expected.

Keywords: Abies alba; Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; Fagus sylvatica; Quercus species; climate warming; dendroclimatology; growth stationarity; species-specific growth trend; temperate forest.