Background: Elevated blood pressure (BP) is reportedly associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the association between cumulative BP exposure in midlife and incident AF in mid-to-late life remains unclear.
Methods and results: Participants enrolled in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study with 4 consecutive BP measurements and no prevalent AF at baseline were included. Cumulative BP was calculated as the area under the curve from visit 1 to visit 4. Incident AF was identified by study visit ECGs, hospital discharge codes, or death certificates. A total of 9892 participants were included (44.6% men and mean age 62.9±5.7 years at visit 4) with 1550 (15.7%) individuals who developed new-onset AF during an average follow-up of 15.4 years. The incidence rates of AF per 1000 person-years across the 4 quartiles of cumulative systolic BP were 7.9, 9.2, 12.5, and 16.9, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, the hazard ratios for incident AF among participants in the highest quartile of cumulative systolic BP, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure were 1.48 (95% CI, 1.27-1.72), 1.81 (95% CI, 1.53-2.13), and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.05-1.41), respectively, compared with those in the lowest quartile. The addition of cumulative systolic BP or pulse pressure slightly improved the ability to predict new-onset AF.
Conclusions: Higher exposure to cumulative systolic BP, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure was significantly associated with increased risk of incident AF.
Keywords: ARIC; atrial fibrillation; cumulative blood pressure exposure; mediation analysis.