Background and aims: Long-term nucleos(t)ide analog (Nuc) treatment can reduce HCC in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (HBV-LC). Earlier small cohort studies showed a comparable 5-year incidence of HCC in HBeAg-negative patients with HBV-LC who stopped and those continued Nuc therapy. This study aimed to validate these findings using a large cohort with 10-year follow-up.
Approach and results: From 2 centers, 494 HBeAg-negative patients with HBV-LC who stopped (finite group) and 593 who continued (continuous group) Nuc therapy were recruited. HCC, HBsAg loss, liver-related mortality/transplantation, and overall survival rates were compared between 2 groups with 1:1 propensity score matching of sex, treatment history, types of Nuc, age, transaminases, platelet count, and HBsAg levels at end of therapy in finite group or 3-year on-therapy in continuous groups. During a median follow-up of 6.2 (3.4-8.9) years, the annual and 10-year HCC incidence were lower in finite group (1.6 vs. 3.3%/y and 10-y 15.7% vs. 26.8%, respectively; log-rank test, p <0.0001). The finite group showed greater HBsAg decline/year (-0.116 vs. -0.095 log 10 IU/mL, p =0.0026) and 7.6 times higher 10-year incidence of HBsAg loss (22.7% vs. 3%, p <0.0001). Multivariate Cox regression showed finite therapy an independent factor for HBsAg loss (adjusted HR: 11.79) but protective against HCC (adjusted HR: 0.593), liver-related mortality/transplantation (adjusted HR: 0.312), and overall mortality (adjusted HR: 0.382).
Conclusions: Finite Nuc therapy in HBeAg-negative HBV-LC may reduce HCC incidence, increase HBsAg loss, and improve survival. Greater HBsAg decline/loss may reflect enhanced immunity and contribute to the reduction of hepatic carcinogenesis.
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