Analysis of prognostic factors and establishment of prognostic model for primary mediastinal germ cell tumors: a case controlled study

Abstract

Background: The overall prognosis of primary mediastinal germ cell tumors (PMGCTs) is poor and the associated prognostic factors are not fully understood. Our goal was to investigate the prognostic factors of PMGCTs and to develop a validated prognostic prediction model.

Materials and methods: A total of 114 PMGCTs with specific pathological types were included in this study. Clinicopathological characteristics of nonseminomatous PMGCTs and mediastinal seminomas were compared using the χ2 or Fisher's exact test. Independent prognostic factors of nonseminomatous PMGCTs screened using the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were then used to generate a nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index, decision curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and validated by bootstrap resampling. The Kaplan-Meier curves of independent prognostic factors were analyzed.

Results: This study included 71 cases of nonseminomatous PMGCTs and 43 cases of mediastinal seminomas. The 3-year overall survival rates for nonseminomatous PMGCTs and mediastinal seminomas patients were 54.5 and 97.4%, respectively. The overall survival prognostic nomogram for nonseminomatous PMGCTs was established by integrating independent prognostic factors, including the Moran-Suster stage, white blood cell, hemoglobin, and platelet-lymphocyte ratio. The nomogram demonstrated good performance with a concordance index of 0.760 and the 1-year and 3-year AUC values of 0.821 and 0.833, respectively. These values were better than those of the Moran-Suster stage system. The bootstrap validation had an AUC of 0.820 (0.724-0.915) and showed a well-fitting calibration curve. Besides, patients with mediastinal seminomas showed favorable clinical outcomes and all the nine patients received neoadjuvant therapy and postoperative surgery achieved pathological complete response.

Conclusion: A nomogram based on staging and blood routine examination results was established to accurately and consistently predict the prognosis of patients with nonseminomatous PMGCTs.