Construction and validation of a nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated by traditional Chinese medicine based on inflammation, nutrition, and blood lipid indicators

Abstract

Purpose: To establish a nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated by traditional Chinese medicine (TCM).

Methods: Clinical cases of HCC patients treated by TCM at Hunan Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Hospital, and it was randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 222) and the validation cohort (n = 95). In the training cohort, independent risk factors were determined by Cox regression analysis and a nomogram was constructed. The efficiency and clinical applicability of nomograms were evaluated using time-dependent curves, calibration, and the decision curve (DCA), and the patients were divided into high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups using X-tile software.

Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis screened 6 independent risk factors to construct a nomogram of HCC patients, including TNM stage, treatment methods, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI). The consistency index (C-index) of the nomogram of the training was 0.811 (0.794-0.829) and the validation cohort was 0.825 (0.800-0.849). The time dependency showed the AUC values of the nomogram for 3 and 5 years in training cohort were 0.894 (95% CI 0.840-0.948) and 0.952 (95% CI 0.914-0.990), and the validation cohort were 0.928 (95% CI 0.865-0.990) and 0.96 3(95% CI 0.916-1.010). The calibration plot showed the nomogram fits well onto perfect curves, and the DCA curve showed the net benefit of the nomogram at a certain probability threshold is significantly higher than the net benefit of the TNM stage at the same threshold probability. Finally, all the patients were divided into high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups based on the total score of nomogram, and it showed effectively how to identify to high-risk patients.

Conclusion: The nomogram established by the independent risk factors of TNM stage, treatment methods, HDL, AGR, NLR and PNI can predict the prognosis of HCC patients treated by TCM, providing an effective tool to clinical workers to evaluate the prognosis and survival time of HCC patients.

Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Nomogram; Survival prognosis; Traditional Chinese medicine.