Using machine learning models to predict the surgical risk of children with pancreaticobiliary maljunction and biliary dilatation

Abstract

Purpose: To develop machine learning (ML) models to predict the surgical risk of children with pancreaticobiliary maljunction (PBM) and biliary dilatation.

Methods: The subjects of this study were 157 pediatric patients who underwent surgery for PBM with biliary dilatation between January, 2015 and August, 2022. Using preoperative data, four ML models were developed, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine classifier (SVC), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The performance of each model was assessed via the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Model interpretations were generated by Shapley Additive Explanations. A nomogram was used to validate the best-performing model.

Results: Sixty-eight patients (43.3%) were classified as the high-risk surgery group. The XGBoost model (AUC = 0.822) outperformed the LR (AUC = 0.798), RF (AUC = 0.802) and SVC (AUC = 0.804) models. In all four models, enhancement of the choledochal cystic wall and an abnormal position of the right hepatic artery were the two most important features. Moreover, the diameter of the choledochal cyst, bile duct variation, and serum amylase were selected as key predictive factors by all four models.

Conclusions: Using preoperative data, the ML models, especially XGBoost, have the potential to predict the surgical risk of children with PBM and biliary dilatation. The nomogram may provide surgeons early warning to avoid intraoperative iatrogenic injury.

Keywords: Biliary dilatation; Machine learning; Pancreaticobiliary maljunction; Surgical risk.