Development and validation of a nomogram predicting one-year mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

Jing-Jing Song; Yu-Peng Liu; Wen-Yao Wang; Jie Yang; Jun Wen; Jing Chen; Jun Gao; Chun-Li Shao; Yi-Da Tang

doi:10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2022.12.003

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting one-year mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

J Geriatr Cardiol. 2022 Dec 28;19(12):960-969. doi: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2022.12.003.

Authors

Jing-Jing Song¹, Yu-Peng Liu², Wen-Yao Wang³, Jie Yang¹, Jun Wen¹, Jing Chen¹, Jun Gao³, Chun-Li Shao³, Yi-Da Tang³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Cardiology, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
² Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China.
³ Department of Cardiology and Institute of Vascular Medicine, Peking University Third Hospital; Key Laboratory of Molecular Cardiovascular Science, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China.

PMID: 36632203
PMCID: PMC9807403
DOI: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2022.12.003

Abstract

Objective: To formulate a nomogram to predict the risk of one-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) based on a large-scale real-world Asian cohort.

Methods: This study cohort included consecutive patients undergoing PCI in the National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases of China. The endpoint was all-cause mortality. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression and backward stepwise regression were used to select potential risk factors. A nomogram based on the predictors was accordingly constructed to predict one-year mortality. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated. Patients were stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the tertile points in the nomogram and compared by the Kaplan-Meier analysis.

Results: A total of 9603 individuals were included in this study and randomly divided into the derivation cohort (60%) and the validation cohort (40%). Six variables were selected to formulate the nomogram, including age, renal insufficiency, cardiac dysfunction, previous cerebrovascular disease, previous PCI, and TIMI 0-1 before PCI. The area under the curve of this nomogram regarding one-year mortality risks were 0.792 and 0.754 in the derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve successfully stratified the patients according to three risk groups. This nomogram calibrated well and exhibited satisfactory clinical utility in the decision curve analysis.

Conclusions: This study developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram predicting one-year mortality risk in Asian patients undergoing PCI and could help clinicians make risk-dependent decisions.