There is limited evidence of a natural course of an upper gastrointestinal (UGI)-subepithelial lesion (SEL) of 2 cm or less in size. This study aims to determine the natural course of UGI-SELs and find the risk factors of the endoscopic and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) findings associated with an increase in size. The medical records of 2539 patients with UGI-SELs between 2004 and 2016 were reviewed retrospectively. A total of 672 SELs of 2 cm or less in size were analyzed through EUS and followed up for at least 36 months. The mean follow-up duration was 68 months (range: 36-190 months), and 97 SELs (14.4%) showed an increase in size with a mean increase rate of 1.2 mm/year. Initial size (aOR 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.06), an endoscopic finding of a hemorrhagic spot (aOR 3.13, 95% CI 1.14-8.60), and an EUS finding of a lesion in the fourth layer (aOR 1.87, 95% CI (1.21-2.88) were related to an increase in size. An endoscopic finding of translucidity (aOR 0.28, 95% CI (0.10-0.76) and an EUS finding of calcification (aOR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09-0.95) were inversely related to an increase in size. There was no death related to UGI-SELs during the follow-up. While most UGI-SELs of 2 cm or less in size showed no significant size change and favorable prognosis, an individualized follow-up strategy needs to be considered in case of the presence of hemorrhagic spots and lesions in the fourth layer.
Keywords: endoscopic ultrasonography; endoscopy; prognosis; subepithelial lesion.