Predicting Long-term Survival After Lung Metastasectomy in Patients With Malignant Germ-cell Tumors

Abstract

Background/aim: The aim of the study was to identify predictors of long-term survival and propose an improved risk stratification in patients with pulmonary germ-cell metastases admitted for pulmonary metastasectomy.

Patients and methods: Thirty-four patients admitted to the Division of Thoracic Surgery Munich, Germany, from 04/1994 until 09/2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The impact of clinical parameters on survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier, multivariate Cox regression analysis and receiver-operator curves.

Results: Ten-year overall survival was 75.3%. Elevated American Society of Anesthesiologists score, metachronous metastasis, embryonal histology, intrathoracic lymph node involvement, brain metastases and thoracic wall infiltration were significant predictors of reduced survival. With the independent predictors (embryonal histology, metachronous metastasis and thoracic wall infiltration), a germinal non-seminomatous lung metastasis risk of death score (GLUMER) was calculated, accurately predicting survival (area under curve=0.8839, p=0.0023).

Conclusion: In patients with pulmonary germ-cell metastases, intrathoracic lymph node involvement, embryonal carcinoma, metachronous metastasis and thoracic wall infiltration represent negative predictors of long-term survival. The GLUMER score might represent a promising tool for use in adapted follow-up care in high-risk patients.

Keywords: Germ tumors; lung metastases; risk score.