Multi-ancestry Mendelian randomization of omics traits revealing drug targets of COVID-19 severity

Abstract

Background: Recent omic studies prioritised several drug targets associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. However, little evidence was provided to systematically estimate the effect of drug targets on COVID-19 severity in multiple ancestries.

Methods: In this study, we applied Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization approaches to understand the putative causal effects of 16,059 transcripts and 1608 proteins on COVID-19 severity in European and effects of 610 proteins on COVID-19 severity in African ancestry. We further integrated genetics, clinical and literature evidence to prioritise drug targets. Additional sensitivity analyses including multi-trait colocalization and phenome-wide MR were conducted to test for MR assumptions.

Findings: MR and colocalization prioritized four protein targets, FCRL3, ICAM5, ENTPD5 and OAS1 that showed effect on COVID-19 severity in European ancestry. One protein target, SERPINA1 showed a stronger effect in African ancestry but much weaker effect in European ancestry (odds ratio [OR] in Africans=0.369, 95%CI=0.203 to 0.668, P = 9.96 × 10^-4; OR in Europeans=1.021, 95%CI=0.901 to 1.157, P = 0.745), which suggested that increased level of SERPINA1 will reduce COVID-19 risk in African ancestry. One protein, ICAM1 showed suggestive effect on COVID-19 severity in both ancestries (OR in Europeans=1.152, 95%CI=1.063 to 1.249, P = 5.94 × 10^-4; OR in Africans=1.481, 95%CI=1.008 to 2.176; P = 0.045). The OAS1, SERPINA1 and ICAM1 effects were replicated using updated COVID-19 severity data in the two ancestries respectively, where alternative splicing events in OAS1 and ICAM1 also showed marginal effects on COVID-19 severity in Europeans. The phenome-wide MR of the prioritised targets on 622 complex traits provided information on potential beneficial effects on other diseases and suggested little evidence of adverse effects on major complications.

Interpretation: Our study identified six proteins as showing putative causal effects on COVID-19 severity. OAS1 and SERPINA1 were targets of existing drugs in trials as potential COVID-19 treatments. ICAM1, ICAM5 and FCRL3 are related to the immune system. Across the six targets, OAS1 has no reliable instrument in African ancestry; SERPINA1, FCRL3, ICAM5 and ENTPD5 showed a different level of putative causal evidence in European and African ancestries, which highlights the importance of more powerful ancestry-specific GWAS and value of multi-ancestry MR in informing the effects of drug targets on COVID-19 across different populations. This study provides a first step towards clinical investigation of beneficial and adverse effects of COVID-19 drug targets.

Funding: No.

Keywords: COVID-19 severity; Colocalization; Drug targets; Mendelian randomization; Multi-ancestry.