Under the framework of Bayesian theory, a probabilistic method for damage diagnosis of latticed shell structures based on temperature-induced strain is proposed. First, a new damage diagnosis index is proposed based on the correlation between temperature-induced strain and structural parameters. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo is adopted to analyze the newly proposed diagnosis index, based on which the frequency distribution histogram for the posterior probability of the diagnosis index is obtained. Finally, the confidence interval of the damage diagnosis is determined by the posterior distribution of the initial state (baseline condition). The damage probability of the unknown state is also calculated. The proposed method was validated by applying it to a latticed shell structure with finite element developed, where the rod damage and bearing failure were diagnosed based on importance analysis and temperature sensitivity analysis of the rod. The analysis results show that the proposed method can successfully consider uncertainties in the strain response monitoring process and effectively diagnose the failure of important rods in radial and annular directions, as well as horizontal (x- and y-direction) bearings of the latticed shell structure.
Keywords: Bayesian; Markov Chain-Monte Carlo methods; damage diagnosis; latticed shell structure; non-destructive inspection; temperature effects.