Clinical predictors of acute cardiac injury and normalization of troponin after hospital discharge from COVID-19

EBioMedicine. 2022 Feb:76:103821. doi: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.103821. Epub 2022 Feb 7.

Abstract

Background: Although acute cardiac injury (ACI) is a known COVID-19 complication, whether ACI acquired during COVID-19 recovers is unknown. This study investigated the incidence of persistent ACI and identified clinical predictors of ACI recovery in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 2.5 months post-discharge.

Methods: This retrospective study consisted of 10,696 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from March 11, 2020 to June 3, 2021. Demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory tests were collected at ACI onset, hospital discharge, and 2.5 months post-discharge. ACI was defined as serum troponin-T (TNT) level >99th-percentile upper reference limit (0.014ng/mL) during hospitalization, and recovery was defined as TNT below this threshold 2.5 months post-discharge. Four models were used to predict ACI recovery status.

Results: There were 4,248 (39.7%) COVID-19 patients with ACI, with most (93%) developed ACI on or within a day after admission. In-hospital mortality odds ratio of ACI patients was 4.45 [95%CI: 3.92, 5.05, p<0.001] compared to non-ACI patients. Of the 2,880 ACI survivors, 1,114 (38.7%) returned to our hospitals 2.5 months on average post-discharge, of which only 302 (44.9%) out of 673 patients recovered from ACI. There were no significant differences in demographics, race, ethnicity, major commodities, and length of hospital stay between groups. Prediction of ACI recovery post-discharge using the top predictors (troponin, creatinine, lymphocyte, sodium, lactate dehydrogenase, lymphocytes and hematocrit) at discharge yielded 63.73%-75.73% accuracy.

Interpretation: Persistent cardiac injury is common among COVID-19 survivors. Readily available patient data accurately predict ACI recovery post-discharge. Early identification of at-risk patients could help prevent long-term cardiovascular complications.

Funding: None.

Keywords: Machine learning; SARS-CoV-2; acute myocardial injury; heart failure.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19 / complications
  • COVID-19 / pathology*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Female
  • Heart Injuries / diagnosis*
  • Heart Injuries / epidemiology
  • Heart Injuries / etiology
  • Heart Injuries / mortality
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • L-Lactate Dehydrogenase / metabolism
  • Logistic Models
  • Lymphocyte Count
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • New York / epidemiology
  • Patient Discharge
  • Retrospective Studies
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Troponin I / metabolism*

Substances

  • Troponin I
  • L-Lactate Dehydrogenase