Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Abstract

Aim: The prediction model of postoperative survival for single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma (SLH-HCC, diameter > 5.0 cm) without portal vein tumour thrombus has not been well established. This study aimed to develop novel nomograms to predict postoperative recurrence and survival of these patients.

Methods: Data from 2469 patients with SLH-HCC who underwent curative resection from January 2005 to December 2015 in China were retrospectively collected. Specifically, nomograms of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) using data from a training cohort were developed with the Cox regression model (n = 1012). The modes were verified in an internal validation cohort (n = 338) and an external cohort comprising four tertiary institutions (n = 1119).

Results: The nomograms of RFS and OS based on tumour clinicopathologic features (diameter, differentiation, microvascular invasion, α-fetoprotein), operative factors (preoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation therapy, scope of liver resection and intraoperative blood transfusion), underlying liver function (albumin-bilirubin grade) and systemic inflammatory or immune status (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio) achieved high C-indexes of 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.91) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79-0.93) in the training cohort, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the five conventional HCC staging systems (0.62-0.73 for RFS, 0.63-0.75 for OS). The nomograms were validated in the internal cohort (0.83 for RFS, 0.84 for OS) and external cohort (0.87 for RFS, 0.88 for OS) and had well-fitted calibration curves. Our nomograms accurately stratified patients with SLH-HCC into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups of postsurgical recurrence and mortality.

Conclusions: The two nomograms achieved optimal prediction for postsurgical recurrence and OS for patients with SLH-HCC after curative resection.

Keywords: Liver resection; Nomogram; Recurrence; Single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma.