Reduction of the risk of asthma attacks is a major goal of current asthma management. We propose to derive a risk scale predicting asthma attacks based on the blood eosinophil count and exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO). Biomarker-stratified trial-level attack rates were extracted and pooled from the control arms of the Novel START, CAPTAIN, QUEST, Benralizumab Phase 2b, PATHWAY, STRATOS 1-2 and DREAM trials (n=3051). These were used to derive rate ratios and the predicted asthma attack rate for different patient groups. The resultant prototype risk scale shows potential to predict asthma attacks, which may be prevented by anti-inflammatory treatment.
Keywords: allergic lung disease; asthma; asthma epidemiology; clinical epidemiology; eosinophil biology; exhaled airway markers; pulmonary eosinophilia; respiratory measurement.
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.