HIV-1 phylodynamic analysis among people who inject drugs in Pakistan correlates with trends in illicit opioid trade

PLoS One. 2020 Aug 28;15(8):e0237560. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237560. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Pakistan is considered by the World Health Organization to currently have a "concentrated" HIV-1 epidemic due to a rapid rise in infections among people who inject drugs (PWID). Prevalence among the country's nearly 105,000 PWID is estimated to be 37.8% but has been shown to be higher in several large urban centers. A lack of public health resources, the common use of professional injectors and unsafe injection practices are believed to have fueled the outbreak. Here we evaluate the molecular characteristics of HIV-1 sequences (n = 290) from PWID in several Pakistani cities to examine transmission dynamics and the association between rates of HIV-1 transmission with regards to regional trends in opioid trafficking. Tip-to-tip (patristic) distance based phylogenetic cluster inferences and BEAST2 Bayesian phylodynamic analyses of time-stamped data were performed on HIV-1 pol sequences generated from dried blood spots collected from 1,453 PWID as part of a cross-sectional survey conducted in Pakistan during 2014/2015. Overall, subtype A1 strains were dominant (75.2%) followed by CRF02_AG (14.1%), recombinants/unassigned (7.2%), CRF35_AD (2.1%), G (1.0%) and C (0.3%). Nearly three quarters of the PWID HIV-1 sequences belonged to one of five distinct phylogenetic clusters. Just below half (44.4%) of individuals in the largest cluster (n = 118) did seek help injecting from professional injectors which was previously identified as a strong correlate of HIV-1 infection. Spikes in estimated HIV-1 effective population sizes coincided with increases in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, Pakistan's western neighbor. Structured coalescent analysis was undertaken in order to investigate the spatial relationship of HIV-1 transmission among the various cities under study. In general terms, our analysis placed the city of Larkana at the center of the PWID HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan which is consistent with previous epidemiological data.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Analgesics, Opioid / administration & dosage*
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • HIV Infections / transmission*
  • HIV Infections / virology
  • HIV Seropositivity
  • HIV-1 / isolation & purification*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Opioid-Related Disorders / epidemiology*
  • Opioid-Related Disorders / virology
  • Pakistan / epidemiology
  • Phylogeny*
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous / epidemiology*
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Analgesics, Opioid

Grants and funding

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.