Background: Frailty in older adults is a common multidimensional clinical entity, a state of vulnerability to stressors that increases the risk of adverse outcomes such as functional decline, institutionalization or death. The aim of this study is to identify the factors that anticipate the future inclusion of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥70 years in home care programmes (HC) and nursing homes (NH), and to develop the corresponding prediction models.
Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 23 primary healthcare centers located in Catalonia, Spain, with an eight-year follow-up (2005-2013). The cohort was made up of 616 individuals. Data collection included a baseline multidimensional assessment carried out by primary health care professionals. Outcome variables were collected during follow-up by consulting electronic healthcare records, and the Central Registry of Catalonia for mortality. A prognostic index for a HC and NH at 8 years was estimated for each patient. Death prior to these events was considered a competing risk event, and Fine-Gray regression models were used.
Results: At baseline, mean age was 76.4 years and 55.5% were women. During follow-up, 19.2% entered a HC program, 8.2% a NH, and 15.4% died without presenting an event. Of those who entered a NH, 31.5% had previously been in a HC program. Multivariate models for a HC and NH showed that the risk of a HC entry was associated with older age, dependence on the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, and slow gait measured by Timed-up-and-go test. An increased risk of being admitted to a NH was associated with older age, dependence on the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, number of prescriptions, and the presence of social risk.
Conclusions: Prognostic models based on comprehensive geriatric assessments can predict the need for the commencement of HC and NH admission in community-dwelling older adults. Our findings underline the necessity to measure functional capacity, mobility, number of prescriptions, and social aspects of older adults in primary healthcare centers. In such a setting they can be offered longitudinal holistic assessments so as to benefit from preventive actions in order to remain independent in the community for as long as possible.
Keywords: Cohort study; Frail elderly; Long-term home care; Long-term institutional care; Primary health care; Risk prediction models.