A considerable subset of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients fail to return to baseline functional status at or beyond 3 months postinjury. Identifying at-risk patients for poor outcome in the emergency department (ED) may improve surveillance strategies and referral to care. Subjects with mTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale 13-15) and negative ED initial head CT < 24 h of injury, completing 3- or 6-month functional outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended; GOSE), were extracted from the prospective, multicenter Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) Pilot study. Outcomes were dichotomized to full recovery (GOSE = 8) vs. functional deficits (GOSE < 8). Univariate predictors with p < 0.10 were considered for multivariable regression. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were reported for outcome predictors. Significance was assessed at p < 0.05. Subjects who completed GOSE at 3- and 6-month were 211 (GOSE < 8: 60%) and 185 (GOSE < 8: 65%). Risk factors for 6-month GOSE < 8 included less education (AOR = 0.85 per-year increase, 95% CI: (0.74-0.98)), prior psychiatric history (AOR = 3.75 (1.73-8.12)), Asian/minority race (American Indian/Alaskan/Hawaiian/Pacific Islander) (AOR = 23.99 (2.93-196.84)), and Hispanic ethnicity (AOR = 3.48 (1.29-9.37)). Risk factors for 3-month GOSE < 8 were similar with the addition of injury by assault predicting poorer outcome (AOR = 3.53 (1.17-10.63)). In mTBI patients seen in urban trauma center EDs with negative CT, education, injury by assault, Asian/minority race, and prior psychiatric history emerged as risk factors for prolonged disability.
Keywords: clinical predictors; emergency department; mild traumatic brain injury; outcome.