Predicting Lung Cancer Occurrence in Never-Smoking Females in Asia: TNSF-SQ, a Prediction Model

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2020 Feb;29(2):452-459. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-19-1221. Epub 2019 Dec 17.

Abstract

Background: High disease burden suggests the desirability to identify high-risk Asian never-smoking females (NSF) who may benefit from low-dose CT (LDCT) screening. In North America, one is eligible for LDCT screening if one satisfies the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria or has model-estimated 6-year risk greater than 0.0151. According to two U.S. reports, only 36.6% female patients with lung cancer met the USPSTF criteria, while 38% of the ever-smokers ages 55 to 74 years met the USPSTF criteria.

Methods: Using data on NSFs in the Taiwan Genetic Epidemiology Study of Lung Adenocarcinoma and the Taiwan Biobank before August 2016, we formed an age-matched case-control study consisting of 1,748 patients with lung cancer and 6,535 controls. Using these and an estimated age-specific lung cancer 6-year incidence rate among Taiwanese NSFs, we developed the Taiwanese NSF Lung Cancer Risk Models using genetic information and simplified questionnaire (TNSF-SQ). Performance evaluation was based on the newer independent datasets: Taiwan Lung Cancer Pharmacogenomics Study (LCPG) and Taiwan Biobank data after August 2016 (TWB2).

Results: The AUC based on the NSFs ages 55 to 70 years in LCPG and TWB2 was 0.714 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.660-0.768]. For women in TWB2 ages 55 to 70 years, 3.94% (95% CI, 2.95-5.13) had risk higher than 0.0151. For women in LCPG ages 55 to 74 years, 27.03% (95% CI, 19.04-36.28) had risk higher than 0.0151.

Conclusions: TNSF-SQ demonstrated good discriminative power. The ability to identify 27.03% of high-risk Asian NSFs ages 55 to 74 years deserves attention.

Impact: TNSF-SQ seems potentially useful in selecting Asian NSFs for LDCT screening.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma of Lung / diagnosis
  • Adenocarcinoma of Lung / epidemiology*
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Early Detection of Cancer / methods
  • Early Detection of Cancer / standards*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Lung Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Lung Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Mass Screening / methods
  • Mass Screening / standards*
  • Middle Aged
  • Non-Smokers / statistics & numerical data*
  • Practice Guidelines as Topic
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • ROC Curve
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data
  • Risk Factors
  • Surveys and Questionnaires / statistics & numerical data
  • Taiwan / epidemiology
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed / standards