The Norovirus Epidemiologic Triad: Predictors of Severe Outcomes in US Norovirus Outbreaks, 2009-2016

J Infect Dis. 2019 Apr 16;219(9):1364-1372. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiy569.

Abstract

Background: Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks worldwide. Clarifying the viral, host, and environmental factors (epidemiologic triad) associated with severe outcomes can help target public health interventions.

Methods: Acute norovirus outbreaks reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) in 2009-2016 were linked to laboratory-confirmed norovirus outbreaks reported to CaliciNet. Outbreaks were analyzed for differences in genotype (GII.4 vs non-GII.4), hospitalization, and mortality rates by timing, setting, transmission mode, demographics, clinical symptoms, and health outcomes.

Results: A total of 3747 norovirus outbreaks were matched from NORS and CaliciNet. Multivariable models showed that GII.4 outbreaks (n = 2353) were associated with healthcare settings (odds ratio [OR], 3.94 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.99-5.23]), winter months (November-April; 1.55 [95% CI, 1.24-1.93]), and older age of cases (≥50% aged ≥75 years; 1.37 [95% CI, 1.04-1.79]). Severe outcomes were more likely among GII.4 outbreaks (hospitalization rate ratio [RR], 1.54 [95% CI, 1.23-1.96]; mortality RR, 2.77 [95% CI, 1.04-5.78]). Outbreaks in healthcare settings were also associated with higher hospitalization (RR, 3.22 [95% CI, 2.34-4.44]) and mortality rates (RR, 5.65 [95% CI, 1.92-18.70]).

Conclusions: Severe outcomes more frequently occurred in norovirus outbreaks caused by GII.4 and those in healthcare settings. These results should help guide preventive interventions for targeted populations, including vaccine development.

Keywords: gastroenteritis; norovirus; outbreaks.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Caliciviridae Infections / complications*
  • Caliciviridae Infections / epidemiology*
  • Caliciviridae Infections / mortality
  • Caliciviridae Infections / transmission
  • Cross Infection / epidemiology
  • Cross Infection / virology
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Female
  • Genotype
  • Health Facilities / statistics & numerical data
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Norovirus / genetics*
  • Seasons
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • United States