Atypical viral dynamics from transport through popular places

Phys Rev E. 2016 Aug;94(2-1):022304. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022304. Epub 2016 Aug 12.

Abstract

The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading-from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading through online spaces such as chat rooms and social media. However, there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model that focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the mobility through and the occupancy of such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profiles in terms of their shapes, durations, and intensities. The general features of these theoretical profiles compare well to real-world data of recent social contagion phenomena.

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / physiology
  • Influenza, Human / transmission*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Zika Virus / physiology
  • Zika Virus Infection / transmission*