Recurrence and prognosis of patients emergently hospitalized for acute esophageal variceal bleeding: A long-term cohort study

Hepatol Res. 2016 Dec;46(13):1338-1346. doi: 10.1111/hepr.12692. Epub 2016 May 16.

Abstract

Aim: To elucidate the rates of recurrence and mortality in acute esophageal variceal bleeding and the associated risk factors.

Methods: A cohort of 174 patients emergently hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding was analyzed. All patients underwent endoscopic variceal ligation within 3 h of arrival. Comorbidities, vital signs, drug use, laboratory data, etiology, endoscopic findings, transfusion requirement, and follow-up endoscopy were assessed. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR).

Results: Rebleeding was identified in 49 patients with a mean follow-up of 18 months. The cumulative rebleeding rate at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 10.2%, 30.0%, and 51.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for rebleeding were child-Pugh class C (HR 1.94; P = 0.027), alcoholic liver cirrhosis (HR 2.32; P = 0.01), and no follow-up endoscopy (HR 13.3; P < 0.001). During the overall mean follow-up of 22 months, 69 patients died (17 due to bleeding), and the cumulative mortality rate at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 12.2%, 26.6%, and 63.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for mortality were child-Pugh class C (HR 2.91; P < 0.001), coexistence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 1.92; P = 0.013), and no follow-up endoscopy (HR 23.6; P < 0.001).

Conclusion: This study revealed more than 50% cumulative rebleeding and mortality in the 5-year period after endoscopic variceal ligation for esophageal variceal bleeding in an emergency setting. Child-Pugh C, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and no follow-up endoscopy increased the risk of rebleeding; Child-Pugh C, coexistence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and no follow-up endoscopy increased the risk of mortality.

Keywords: death; esophageal variceal hemorrhage; natural history; urgent endoscopy; varix rupture.