Time to first flare-up episode of GVHD can stratify patients according to their prognosis during clinical course of progressive- or quiescent-type chronic GVHD

Bone Marrow Transplant. 2007 Oct;40(8):779-84. doi: 10.1038/sj.bmt.1705806. Epub 2007 Aug 13.

Abstract

GVHD-specific survival (GSS) has been investigated as a potential study end point to describe the clinical course and outcome of chronic GVHD (cGVHD). However, reaching this end point requires a long observation time. We hypothesized that the time to the first flare-up (FFU) of cGVHD (TTF) can be an alternative statistical end point to GSS. This retrospective study included 96 patients with a diagnosis of cGVHD from a cohort of 119 patients with a prior history of acute GVHD. The median TTF was 73 days after the diagnosis of cGVHD. The 2-year cumulative incidences of first, second and third episodes of flare-up (FU) during courses of cGVHD were estimated as 69.5, 46.4 and 22.1%. Those patients who did not have an episode of FU of cGVHD had 96.0% of 2-years GSS rate, while those with 1 and > or =2 episodes had 50.8 and 46.8%, respectively (P=0.001). Shorter TTF was associated with poor GSS and decreased overall survival. The shorter TTF during the course of cGVHD was significantly associated with extensive cGVHD (P=0.002), Hopkins' risk category (P=0.022) and progressive-type cGVHD (P<0.001) in multivariate analysis. We propose that TTF can be an alternative end point to GSS in cGVHD trials.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Chronic Disease
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Graft vs Host Disease / etiology*
  • Humans
  • Leukemia / surgery*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Stem Cell Transplantation / adverse effects*
  • Time Factors