The relationship between plasma concentrations of nelfinavir and virologic treatment failure was investigated to determine the minimum effective concentration of nelfinavir. Plasma samples were prospectively collected from treatment-naive patients who began taking nelfinavir, 1,250 mg BID + two nucleoside reverse transcription inhibitors (NRTIs). Nelfinavir concentration ratios were calculated by dividing each individual nelfinavir level by the time-adjusted population value. Virologic failure was defined as either no response (a detectable viral load after 6 months) or a relapse (detectable viral load after being undetectable, or an increase in viral load >1 log above nadir). Forty-eight patients were included with a median follow-up period of 8 months. The median concentration ratio of nelfinavir was 0.98 (interquartile range, 0.76-1.47). Virologic failure was observed in 29% of the patients. In a univariate analysis, the nelfinavir concentration ratio appeared to be the single determinant that was related to virologic failure (P = 0.039). Patients with a median ratio <0.90 had a relative risk of 3.0 (95% CI, 1.2-7.6) for virologic failure. Using this threshold, virologic failures were detected with 64% sensitivity and 74% specificity (P = 0.014). Virologic failure of nelfinavir-containing triple therapy can be explained, to a large extent, by low plasma levels of nelfinavir.