The aim of this investigation was to examine the possible clinical significance of the kinetics of bone marrow (BM) tumor load during the course of sequential high-dose therapy (HDT) as assessed by quantitative PCR in patients with multiple myeloma. In 20 patients with multiple myeloma (MM) treated with two consecutive cycles of HDT followed by autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation (PBSCT), clonotypic cells in the peripheral blood (PB) and BM were quantitated by PCR using allele-specific oligonucleotides (ASO) prior to the first, immediately prior to the second, and after the second HDT. The median proportion of clonotypic cells in the BM was 1.27% before the first HDT (range, 0.03-70%), 0.17% after the first (range, 0.001-22%), and 0.05% after the second HDT (range, 0.00009-1.44%). The median number of circulating clonotypic cells was 65/ml (range, 0.9-10842) prior to HDT, 2.7/ml (range, 0-315) after the first, and 3.5/ml PB (range, 0.7-97) after the second HDT. While the median BM tumor load decreased during the first (P = 0.03) and second (P = 0.044) HDT cycles, only the first cycle resulted in a reduction of clonotypic cells in the PB (P = 0.00078 and P= 1.0, respectively). In seven patients, the BM tumor load did not decrease below the initial level after one or two cycles of HDT. All of these patients developed progressive disease (median, 19 months post first cycle; range, 10-21). Of the remaining 13 patients, only four relapsed (18, 19, 21 and 22 months after the first cycle of HDT), while nine remain in response (median followup, 29 months; range, 18-41) (log-rank test P = 0.0009). Our results indicate that the kinetics of the BM tumor load is a predictive parameter in patients with MM and identifies those patients who could benefit from further therapy including new treatment modalities.